Published October 11, 2026 in Market Update

Some North County pockets stayed very tight, but not all moved at the same speed

By Brad Bell

Real estate, North County - $900K+

Realtor.com reported that price reductions hit 4-year highs nationally in September 2026. That headline does not describe every pocket here. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 260 homes for sale across North County in the three months ending August 31, 2026, against 558 pending sales. That gap tells you supply is thin overall. But thin is not the same everywhere.

CNBC reported the average 30-year fixed rate reached 7.49% in the week of October 7, 2026. That is real pressure on buyers. It makes pricing precision more important, not less. A home priced for the wrong pocket sits longer.

Where it was tightest

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1 month of supply in ZIP 94010 and 1 month in ZIP 94030 for the three months ending August 31, 2026. In 94010, homes sold averaged 106.8% of list price. In 94030, that figure was 107.2%. Both ZIPs saw more than 6 in 10 homes sell above list.

ZIP 94015 matched the 14-day median and posted the highest sale-to-list ratio of any ZIP in this market: 109.8%, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Listings there fell 22.7% from a year before, which kept supply at 1.2 months.

Where buyers had more room

ZIP 94038 and ZIP 94037 tell a different story. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 3.1 months of supply in 94038 and 1.5 months in 94037 for the same period. The median days on market in 94037 was 69 days. In 94038, it was 33 days. Neither ZIP saw any home sell above list in 94037, and only 28.6% did in 94038.

ZIP 94019 averaged 98.1% of list price, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. That means sellers there took a small discount on average. The median was 31 days on market, one day longer than the same period a year before.

The middle of the market

ZIPs 94066, 94080, 94005, 94014, and 94044 sit in between. Most saw sale-to-list ratios above 104%. But 94014 stood apart: the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 27 median days on market there, 9 days longer than a year before, and 2.5 months of supply. Only 34.7% of homes went under contract within two weeks.

What the national picture misses

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. house prices rose 2.6% from July 2025 to July 2026. That is a national average. ZIP 94030 saw its median sale price rise 23.8% over the same comparison period, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. ZIP 94066 saw its median fall 3%. Same region, very different outcomes.

ZIP 94005 is a good example of why the median alone can mislead. Its median fell 2.1%, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. But homes sold 15 days faster than a year before, and 46.7% went under contract within two weeks, up 26.7 points. More activity, slightly lower median.

What this means if you are selling

In 94010 and 94030, the Real Estate Data Aggregator shows buyers are still competing hard. Homes in 94010 averaged 106.8% of list price, and 62.7% sold above list. Pricing to the market still earns a premium there.

In 94037 and 94038, the same strategy does not work. The data shows homes selling at or below list, and sitting longer. A seller pricing those homes like 94010 will wait.

What this means if you are buying

CNBC reported the 30-year fixed rate at 7.49% as of October 7, 2026. That is not a small number. In ZIP 94038, the Real Estate Data Aggregator shows 3.1 months of supply and homes averaging 99.4% of list. That is a pocket where a buyer can have a conversation about price. In 94030, with 1 month of supply and 107.2% average sale-to-list, that conversation is harder.

One street can read very differently from the ZIP code around it. If you want to know where your address actually sits in this data, text me.