Published October 4, 2026 in Market Update

More sellers came out, but West Valley Luxury still did not loosen much

By Brad Bell

Real estate, West Valley Luxury - $2M+

The one fact that matters most for homeowners right now: the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 660 homes for sale across West Valley Luxury in the three months ending July 31, 2026, up 18.7% from the same period a year before. More choice showed up. Buyers absorbed it anyway.

Here is what those four numbers say together. Sellers brought more homes to market. Buyers kept signing contracts, up 2.6% year over year per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Sales closed up 1.3%. The supply increase was real, but demand did not flinch much.

Nationally, Realtor.com reported active listings topped 1.16 million in September 2026, growing 5.5% year over year. That gap between the national supply surge and this market's 18.7% local rise tells you sellers here were more active than the country as a whole, yet the market still did not tip toward buyers.

What the numbers actually mean for pricing

Nationally, Realtor.com counted price cuts on 20.8% of listings in September, the highest September share since 2018. That is a useful backdrop. In West Valley Luxury, the picture is more mixed, and it varies a lot by ZIP code.

Buyers here still have to compete. They also have more to compare than they did a year ago. That combination is what makes preparation and pricing matter more now, not less.

How each ZIP code read, three months ending July 31, 2026

The market is not one thing. Each ZIP below tells a different story. All figures are from the Real Estate Data Aggregator.

The ZIPs where demand stayed strongest

ZIP 94087 in Sunnyvale stood out. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted a median of 9 days on market, 1 day shorter than a year before. The sale-to-list ratio came in at 107.3%, and 68% of homes sold above list price. Pending sales rose 9.3%. This ZIP sits close to the Apple and Nvidia campuses along 280 and Lawrence Expressway, and that commute advantage showed up in the numbers.

ZIP 95014 in Cupertino also held up well on competition. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the sale-to-list ratio at 105.3%, up 1 point from a year before. Six in ten homes sold above list price. Inventory nearly doubled, up 96.7%, yet homes still moved in a median of 16 days.

ZIP 95129 in West San Jose moved the fastest of any ZIP in this group. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted a median of 13 days on market. Nearly 59% of homes went under contract within two weeks. The median sale price came in at $2,400,000, down 10.5% from a year before. More homes sold, and they sold fast, but at lower prices. That tells you buyers were active and price-sensitive.

The ZIP that reads very differently: 95033

ZIP 95033 covers the Los Gatos hills on the Santa Cruz Mountains side. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted a median of 54 days on market, 23 days longer than a year before. Months of supply reached 6.1, up 1 month from 2025. Only 6.7% of homes sold above list price. Sales fell 11.8%.

The hills are a different buyer and a different commute. Access to 17 and the distance to the tech campuses along 280 and 85 are real factors here. This ZIP has always moved more slowly than the flats. Right now it is moving more slowly than it did a year ago.

Where prices moved up and where they slipped

ZIP 95030, covering downtown Los Gatos and Almond Grove, posted the biggest price gain in this group. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the median at $3,825,000, up 24.6% from a year before. Inventory there fell 22.2%. Fewer homes came to market, and the ones that did sold at higher prices.

ZIP 94086 in Sunnyvale showed the steepest price drop, down 21% to $1,660,000. Days on market rose 10 days to 28. The share of homes that sold above list fell 13.2 points. This ZIP sits below the $2M threshold for most of its sales, so the luxury story there is limited.

A price dip does not always mean a soft market. In 95129, prices fell 10.5% while volume rose 5.8% and the median days on market stayed at 13. Buyers were there. They just paid less per home.

What the national context adds

Redfin reported that San Jose home prices rose 0.9% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis in August 2026. Redfin also reported U.S. home prices rose 3.7% year over year in August, the fastest annual growth rate in a year. The Federal Housing Finance Agency put U.S. house prices up 2.6% from July 2025 to July 2026.

West Valley Luxury is not the national market. But those national figures confirm that prices were not falling broadly. The ZIP-level dips here reflect local mix and supply shifts, not a market-wide retreat.

One more national number worth knowing: CNBC reported the average contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.30% as of September 30, 2026. At that rate, the financing cost on a $2M home is material. Buyers who can pay cash or carry a large down payment have an advantage in this price range.

What this means if you are thinking about selling

Buyers have more to compare than they did a year ago. That is the honest read of an 18.7% inventory increase. It does not mean demand is gone. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,162 pending sales across this market in the three months ending July 31, 2026, up 2.6% from a year before. Buyers are still signing contracts.

What changed is the margin for error on pricing. Nationally, Realtor.com found price cuts on 20.8% of listings in September 2026, the highest September share since 2018. Locally, the ZIPs with the slowest days on market and the most inventory are the ones where that pattern shows up first.

The ZIPs with tight supply and strong school assignments, like 95014 and 94087, still moved fast and over list. The hills ZIP 95033 did not. One street can read very differently from the ZIP code around it, and the ZIP code can read very differently from the market as a whole.