More San Jose condo sellers are adjusting price, but not every part is slowing
Realtor.com reported that price cuts in the San Jose metro rose 4.6 percentage points year over year in September 2026. That is the headline. But the Real Estate Data Aggregator's numbers for the three months ending August 31, 2026 tell a more specific story: this condo market is not one market. It is several, and they are moving in opposite directions.
Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% as of October 8, 2026. That is real pressure on buyers. It means a seller who prices too high now has fewer people who can make the math work. Getting the number right matters more than it did a year ago.
The supply gap tells the story
ZIP 95134 had 15.3 months of supply, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Only 2 homes sold there in the period. Ten were still listed. Nobody went under contract within two weeks. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 0% of homes selling above list price there. Buyers have real room to negotiate in that pocket.
ZIP 95111 is a different conversation. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1.2 months of supply there. Nearly half of all homes, 46.9%, went under contract within two weeks. The sale-to-list ratio was 102.6%. That is a market where a well-priced home still draws competition.
ZIP by ZIP: the three months ending August 31, 2026
| 95111 | 95131 | 95112 | 95110 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $995,000 | $1,285,500 | $1,000,000 | $762,500 |
| Months of supply | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.7 |
| Median days on market | 19 | 19 | 20 | 28 |
| Sold above list | 49.3% | 47.6% | 31.7% | 33.3% |
| Sale to list | 102.6% | 102.2% | 100.9% | 100.9% |
ZIP 95131, near Berryessa, is also moving. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 40.5% of homes going under contract within two weeks. The sale-to-list ratio was 102.2%. Sales volume dropped 30% year over year, but the homes that did sell, sold fast and above asking.
ZIP 95110, near downtown San Jose, is softer. Supply rose 108.3% year over year, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Days on market stretched to 28, six days longer than a year ago. Prices still came in at 100.9% of list on average, but fewer homes are selling above asking, down 4.9 points from a year ago.
Where prices moved
ZIP 95110 was the outlier on the upside. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted a median sale price of $762,500, up 11.7% from a year ago. Sales volume rose 23.5% too. That is a real move, not a rounding error.
ZIP 95136 was the sharpest drop. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the median at $1,205,000, down 19.2% year over year. Inventory there rose 41.9%. Days on market stretched to 29. The sale-to-list ratio slipped 2.3 points. That combination tells you buyers have choices and are using them.
Milpitas (95035) is worth watching separately
Milpitas sits close to Apple's campus and the 237 and 880 interchange. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 43.1% of homes going under contract within two weeks, up 4.8 points from a year ago. The median price dipped 7.2%, but homes are still selling in 16 days and closing above list. The price drop likely reflects a mix shift, not a market in trouble.
The rate backdrop
Freddie Mac averaged the 30-year fixed at 7.40% as of October 8, 2026. The 15-year fixed came in at 6.73%, also per Freddie Mac. Realtor.com reported the San Jose metro's median home price at $1,388,472 in September 2026. At 7.40%, the monthly payment on a standard loan at that price is a real filter on who can buy. That is part of why pricing precision matters more now than it did when rates were lower.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. home prices rose 2.6% from July 2025 to July 2026. Month over month, prices rose 0.3% in July, seasonally adjusted. The national number is a backdrop, not a local forecast. The ZIP-level numbers above are what actually happened here.
What this means if you own here
If your condo is in a ZIP with under 2 months of supply, like 95111 or 95131, the data says buyers are still competing. Pricing at market still works. If you are in a ZIP with 3 months or more, buyers have options. A price that was right six months ago may need a second look.
Realtor.com reported that metro price cuts rose 4.6 percentage points in September 2026. That is not a crash. It is sellers catching up to where buyers already are. The ones who adjust early tend to sell. The ones who wait tend to sit.
- The three months ending August 31, 2026 show a split San Jose condo market.
- ZIP 95111 had 1.2 months of supply and nearly half of homes selling above asking.
- ZIP 95134 had 15.3 months of supply and nothing going under contract in two weeks.
- One street can read very differently from the ZIP code around it.
- Rates at 7.40% (Freddie Mac) make the right price more important, not less.
Your next step
(408) 421-9448Text me your address and I will send back where your San Jose condo sits on that supply range, against what actually sold near you in the three months ending August 31, 2026. Takes a day, costs nothing.
Text me- Real Estate Data Aggregator numbers for ZIPs 95110, 95112, 95113, 95131, 95134, 95035, 95111, 95123 and 95136, the three months ending August 31, 2026, compared with the same months of 2025. Real Estate Data Aggregator last updated them on Oct 7, 2026.
- Realtor.com: September 2026 Monthly Housing Trends: Price Cuts Hit 4-Year Highs as Mortgage Rates Top 7%, Sep 30, 2026
- Federal Housing Finance Agency: FHFA House Price Index® Up 0.3 Percent in July; Up 2.6 Percent from Last Year | FHFA, Sep 29, 2026
- Redfin: One in Five Home Sellers Cut Prices as Buyer’s Market Persists, Sep 30, 2026
- Realtor.com: Mortgage Rates Jump For Seventh Straight Week to 7.40%; Highest Rate in 35 Months, Oct 8, 2026
- Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates, read Oct 10, 2026