Published October 18, 2026 in Market Update

More homes are for sale here, but buyers have not left

By Brad Bell
Real estate, East San Jose & North Valley - $800K+

These numbers cover the three months ending August 31, 2026. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 360 homes for sale across East San Jose and North Valley, up 36.4% from the same period in 2025. More competition for sellers, yes. But 505 pending sales in the same window says buyers are still writing offers.

That gap matters. When pending sales outnumber homes for sale, buyers are not sitting on their hands. They are moving, even with rates where they are.

Rates are not helping. CNBC reported a forecast of 7.4% for the average 30-year fixed rate in the fourth quarter of 2026. Realtor.com noted rates topped 7% in September 2026. That is real friction for buyers stretching to reach these price points.

The market at a glance, three months ending August 31, 2026
Homes sold
Down 11.7% from a year ago
New listings
Up 4.8% from a year ago
Pending sales
Down 7.2% from a year ago
Homes for sale
Up 36.4% from a year ago
Source: Real Estate Data Aggregator, the three months ending August 31, 2026

Fewer homes sold than a year ago, down 11.7% by the Real Estate Data Aggregator's count. That is partly the rate story, and partly that more sellers are testing the market without landing a deal. Not every home is moving fast.

Where buyers are still competing hard

The ZIP codes are not all reading the same. In 95127, the Real Estate Data Aggregator found that 52.2% of homes sold above list price, up 10.6 points from a year ago. Median days on market there fell 6 days to 17. In 95132, 52.9% sold above list, with 44.3% going under contract within two weeks of listing.

Above-list sales and speed by ZIP, three months ending August 31, 2026
95127951329513195148
Sold above list price52.2%52.9%47.6%53.3%
Median days on market17191922
Under contract in 2 weeks43.2%44.3%40.5%29.4%
Real Estate Data Aggregator. Lower days wins that row; higher share wins the others.

95148 tells a different story. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted median days on market at 22, up 10 days from a year ago. The share going under contract within two weeks fell 21.5 points to 29.4%. Prices there dipped just 0.3%, so the price held. But sellers needed more patience.

Milpitas (95035) added the most inventory

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 94 homes for sale in 95035, up 100% from a year ago. That is the sharpest inventory jump in this group. Yet 109 homes were pending, and 43.1% went under contract within two weeks, up 4.8 points. More choice for buyers there, but demand kept pace.

Prices slipped, but not evenly

Most ZIPs saw median prices fall from a year ago. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put 95132 down 10.4%, the largest drop in this group, to $1,560,000. 95148 barely moved, down 0.3% to $1,540,800. 95116 came in at $935,000, down 3.4%. These are not the same market.

Median sale price by ZIP, three months ending August 31, 2026
  1. 195132$1,560,000
  2. 295148$1,540,800
  3. 395035 (Milpitas)$1,350,000
  4. 495131$1,285,500
  5. 595121$1,245,000
  6. 695127$1,125,000
  7. 795133$982,500
  8. 895116$935,000
  9. 995122$903,000
Real Estate Data Aggregator. Every ZIP saw a year-over-year price decline, ranging from 0.3% to 10.4%.

The rent picture adds context

Realtor.com reported that median asking rent in San Jose rose 6.0% year over year in September 2026, reaching $3,565 for the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara area. Rising rents keep ownership math in the conversation, even with rates at 7%-plus.

Realtor.com also found that 22.8% of West region listings took a price reduction in September 2026. That lines up with what the local numbers show: more supply, and sellers who priced ahead of where buyers are willing to go are adjusting.

In short
  1. Supply is up 36.4% from a year ago, and prices have eased in most ZIPs.
  2. But 505 pending sales and sale-to-list ratios above 100% in several ZIPs say this is not a market that has gone quiet.
  3. The story depends heavily on which ZIP and which price point you are in.

One street can read very differently from the ZIP code as a whole. If your home is in 95127, 95132 or 95035, the numbers behind your address may not match what the broader picture says. I am happy to pull the specifics for your block.

Your next step

(408) 421-9448

Text me your address and I will send back how your home's price and days on market compare to what actually sold near you in the three months ending August 31, 2026. Takes a day, costs nothing.

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Where these numbers came from