Published October 4, 2026 in Market Update

Mid-Peninsula stayed tight even with rates above 7%

By Brad Bell

Real estate, Mid-Peninsula - $1M-$3M

Redfin reported that mortgage rates are sitting above 7%. That is the headline most homeowners read. Here is what actually happened in this market during the same stretch.

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,052 homes sold across Mid-Peninsula in the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is up 12.3% from the same months of 2025. At the same time, the number of homes for sale fell 16.3%. More buyers, fewer choices.

New listings were up only 1.4%, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Sellers added a little supply. Buyers absorbed it fast. That gap is why the market stayed tight.

Nationally, Realtor.com reported that 20.8% of listings had their price reduced in September, the highest share since October 2022. That is not what the Real Estate Data Aggregator shows here. Mid-Peninsula moved in a different direction.

What each ZIP code did

The region did not move as one. Some ZIPs tightened hard. A few softened. Here is the breakdown.

Where things moved fastest

Three ZIPs stood out for speed. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows 94010 (Burlingame), 94402 (San Mateo hills) and 94070 (San Carlos) each at a median of 12 days on market. In 94402, 63.4% of homes went under contract within two weeks of listing.

Where prices dipped

Not every ZIP gained. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows the median sale price in 94403 (San Mateo) down 1.6% year over year, in 94070 (San Carlos) down 1%, in 94002 (Belmont) down 7.1%, in 94066 (San Bruno) down 4.9% and in 94404 (Foster City) down 5.7%.

A price dip alongside a sale-to-list ratio above 100% tells you something. In 94403, homes still sold at 107.3% of list on average. The median price fell, but that reflects what sellers listed, not a collapse in what buyers paid relative to asking.

Two ZIPs worth watching more closely

ZIP 94002 (Belmont) is the one ZIP where inventory jumped. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted homes for sale up 118.8% year over year. Days on market grew 4 days longer. The share of homes that sold above list fell 12.1 points. Buyers there had more room to think.

ZIP 94404 (Foster City) also slowed. Days on market grew 7 days longer, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. The sale-to-list ratio slipped 0.5 points to 101.2%. Pending sales fell 10%. Still a seller's market by the numbers, but the gap narrowed.

Even the loosest ZIP here, 94063 at 2.5 months of supply, is still well below the six months that typically signals a balanced market.

The national picture is different

Nationally, Realtor.com reported active listings grew 5.5% year over year, topping 1.16 million homes for sale. The Federal Housing Finance Agency put U.S. home price growth at 2.6% year over year through July.

Mid-Peninsula inventory fell 16.3% over that same stretch, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. The national supply trend and the local supply trend are pointing in opposite directions.

Redfin also reported that San Jose home prices rose 0.9% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis in August. That fits the pattern the Real Estate Data Aggregator shows for the broader Mid-Peninsula area.

One thing worth remembering: the ZIP code numbers are averages. A single street, or even a block, can read very differently from the whole ZIP. If your home is in one of these areas and you want to know where it sits specifically, the aggregate picture only gets you so far.