Published October 11, 2026 in Market Update

Mid-Peninsula sales held steady even with rates near 7.5%

By Brad Bell

Real estate, Mid-Peninsula - $1M+

CNBC reported the average 30-year fixed rate hit 7.49% in early October. That is real money on a $2 million loan. But the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 742 homes sold across the Mid-Peninsula in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 1.6% from the same months of 2025. The market did not stop.

Supply and demand both edged up by about the same amount. That balance is why prices held in most pockets. It also means buyers have a little more to choose from than they did last year, though not much.

What rates are doing nationally

CNBC reported that mortgage applications to purchase a home fell 2% for the week ending October 7. Nationally, Realtor.com reported that price cuts hit 20.8% of listings in September, the highest share since October 2022. The Federal Housing Finance Agency put U.S. home price growth at 2.6% year over year through July 2026. Those are national numbers. The Mid-Peninsula is not the national market.

Higher rates squeeze buyers who need a loan. But many buyers here are trading equity from one home into the next, or paying cash. That cushions this market from rate moves more than most.

Where prices rose and where they dipped

The picture is not the same in every ZIP. Some areas saw prices climb. Others gave back a few percent. The Real Estate Data Aggregator breaks it down by ZIP for the three months ending August 31, 2026.

ZIP 94040 in Mountain View had the highest median at $2,850,000, up 49.7% from a year before. That jump is large enough to flag. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted only 44 homes sold there, down 35.3% from last year. A smaller pool of sales, weighted toward larger homes, can move the median sharply. Read that number with care.

ZIP 94070 in San Carlos had the strongest combination of price growth and volume. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 97 homes sold, up 12.8%, with a median of $2,480,000, up 11.5%. Homes there sold in a median of 13 days, 4 days faster than a year before. More than half sold above list price.

ZIP 94403 in San Mateo tells a different story. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the median at $1,760,000, down 5.5%. Homes sold dropped 11.1%. Days on market ticked up 2 days. Prices were still above list on average at 108.2%, so it is not a slow market. But sellers there should price with the dip in mind, not against last year's peak.

How fast homes are moving, ZIP by ZIP

ZIP 94041 in Mountain View had the fastest pace: a median of 10 days, 3 days shorter than last year. ZIP 94401 in San Mateo was the slowest at 29 days, though that is still 11 days shorter than a year before. Speed picked up in most ZIPs even as rates climbed.

Are sellers getting their price?

In most of these ZIPs, yes. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows sale-to-list ratios above 100% across the board. That means the typical home sold for more than it was listed at. But the gap between ZIPs is worth knowing.

ZIP 94404 in San Mateo averaged 100.6% of list, the closest to flat. Its median price was also down 11.1% from a year before. If you are selling there, pricing tight to market matters more than it does in the ZIPs where overbids are routine.

Supply is thin, but not equally thin everywhere

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 331 homes for sale across the Mid-Peninsula in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up just 0.9% from last year. Most individual ZIPs are well under two months of supply, which is tight.

ZIP 94002 in Belmont is worth a closer look. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 35 homes for sale there, up 118.8% from a year before. New listings jumped 67.4%. Supply rose to 1.8 months. More choice for buyers, more competition for sellers. Prices dipped 2.2%. That is not a collapse, but it is a shift worth knowing if you own in Belmont.

Which ZIPs saw the most activity jump

A few ZIPs had big swings in volume. ZIP 94063 in Redwood City saw homes sold jump 88.9%, to 34. ZIP 94065 in Redwood Shores was up 61.5%, to 42. Both are smaller markets, so percentage moves look dramatic. The raw counts are modest. Still, more buyers showed up in both.

On the other side, ZIP 94040 in Mountain View sold 44 homes, down 35.3%. ZIP 94043 in Mountain View sold 57 homes, down 20.8%. ZIP 94041 in Mountain View sold 17, down 19%. Mountain View as a whole saw fewer closed sales than a year before, even as prices stayed firm or rose.

One number that shows how fast things move

The Real Estate Data Aggregator tracks the share of homes that went under contract within two weeks of listing. In ZIP 94402 in the San Mateo hills, that share was 62.8%, up 6.4 points from a year before. In ZIP 94041 in Mountain View, it was 64.7%, up 14.7 points. In ZIP 94061 in Redwood City, it was 55.8%, up 11.5 points. These are not slow markets.

What this means for you

If you are selling, the data from the three months ending August 31, 2026 says most homes here still sold above list and sold quickly. But not every ZIP behaved the same. A few saw prices soften while volume held. Pricing to the right ZIP, not to the region, is what matters.

If you are buying, supply is thin across the board. Nationally, Realtor.com reported active listings grew to 1.16 million homes year over year. The Mid-Peninsula is not seeing that kind of inventory growth. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put total homes for sale here at 331, up less than 1% from last year. You are still competing.