Published October 4, 2026 in Market Update

Luxury Peninsula inventory is down even with rates above 7%

By Brad Bell

Real estate, Luxury Peninsula - $3M+

Rates are above 7%, according to Redfin. That is the headline most people are reading. But the local supply story is the one that actually shapes what you can do here.

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 328 homes for sale across the Luxury Peninsula in the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is down 11.4% from the same months of 2025. Fewer choices for buyers means less competition for sellers.

New listings fell too. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 729 new listings across the Luxury Peninsula in those same three months, down 8.3% year over year. Sellers are not flooding the market. That matters more than the rate number for anyone trying to read where prices go.

Nationally, Realtor.com reported active listings topped 1.16 million homes in September 2026. The Luxury Peninsula is moving the opposite direction. Supply here tightened while the national count grew.

What rates above 7% actually mean here

Redfin reported mortgage rates sitting above 7% as of September 30, 2026. Realtor.com noted rates surged above 7% for the first time since January 2025. That is real, and it adds cost to any purchase.

But buyers at this price level often carry less rate sensitivity than the national buyer pool. The supply squeeze still sets the floor. Rates slow things at the edges. They have not broken the market here.

How each ZIP code read in the three months ending July 31, 2026

Not every ZIP moved the same way. Here is what the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted, ZIP by ZIP.

ZIP 94027, which covers Atherton, had a Real Estate Data Aggregator median of $11,200,000, up 2.2% from a year ago. Only 9 homes were for sale there, down 47.1% from the prior year. That is an extreme supply squeeze even by Peninsula standards.

ZIP 95030, which covers the Los Gatos flats and downtown area, showed a Real Estate Data Aggregator median of $3,825,000, up 24.6% year over year. That is a large move. It reflects the mix of homes that sold in that period, not necessarily a straight price increase on every home. Treat it as directional, not as a precise measure of any one property.

ZIP 95070, which covers Saratoga, saw its Real Estate Data Aggregator median dip 3.8% to $4,162,500. At the same time, homes for sale there rose 30.2% and new listings jumped 34.7%. More supply in one ZIP, while most others tightened.

Speed: how fast homes moved

ZIPs 94022 and 94024 each sat at 10 median days on market, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. ZIP 95030 was the slowest at 28 days, though that is still 7 days shorter than the same period a year ago.

In ZIP 94025, the Real Estate Data Aggregator showed 55.1% of homes went under contract within two weeks of listing. That is up 19 points from a year ago. Buyers there are moving faster, not slower, despite the rate environment.

Over list: where buyers are still paying more than asking

ZIP 94043 had 61.1% of homes sell above list, the highest in the group, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. ZIP 95030 had the lowest at 33.3%, though that was still up 0.7 points from a year ago. Even the slowest ZIP here is not a buyer's market in the traditional sense.

ZIP 94301 averaged 104.7% of list price, up 2.5 points year over year, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Buyers there paid more over asking than a year ago, not less.

The national picture, for context

Redfin reported that 21% of U.S. home sellers dropped asking prices during the four weeks ending September 20, 2026. Realtor.com put price cuts at 20.8% of listings nationally in September, the highest since October 2022.

The Luxury Peninsula is not following that pattern. Most ZIPs here still show sale prices above list, not below it. The national softening is real. It has not landed here the same way.

Redfin also reported San Jose home prices rose 0.9% month over month in August 2026 on a seasonally adjusted basis. The Federal Housing Finance Agency put U.S. house prices up 2.6% year over year through July 2026. Local price moves here have outpaced that in most ZIPs.

One note on these numbers

These are ZIP-level figures. One street can read very differently from the ZIP average. A home on a larger lot, with a different school assignment, or with different freeway access to the major tech campuses can price well above or below what the ZIP median suggests.

If your home is in one of these ZIPs, the ZIP number is a starting point, not your answer. The answer comes from the homes closest to yours that actually closed.